Because if you ask this person what kind of evidence would change their estimate from “epsilon” to, say, 5%, they would be hard pressed to come up with anything sensible.
I think I assign epsilon in the cases where I’m already hard pressed to come up with sensible things which would increase it to quantifiable levels. This is a feature, not a bug. There probably could be a more precise probability estimate, for a more rational agent than I with better tracking of priors and updates. Which doesn’t help me, as I’m trapped in this brain.
I think I assign epsilon in the cases where I’m already hard pressed to come up with sensible things which would increase it to quantifiable levels. This is a feature, not a bug. There probably could be a more precise probability estimate, for a more rational agent than I with better tracking of priors and updates. Which doesn’t help me, as I’m trapped in this brain.