One of the most common ways they use the word “contrarian” is to refer to beliefs that are rejected by the mainstream, for whatever reason; by extension, contrarian people are people who hold contrarian beliefs. (E.g., Galileo is a standard example of a “correct contrarian” whether his primary motivation was rebelling against the establishment or discovering truth.) “Aesthetic preference” contrarianism is a separate idea; I don’t think it matters which definition we use for “contrarianism”.
I think it matters in this context. If these people are contrarian simply because they happen to have lots of different views, then it’s irrelevant that they’re contrarian. If they’re contrarian because they’re DRAWN towards contrarian views, it means they’re biased towards cryonics.
I agree it matters in this case, but it doesn’t matter whether we use the word “contrarianism” vs. tabooing it.
Also, your summary assumes one of the points under dispute: whether it’s possible to be good at arriving at true non-mainstream beliefs (‘correct contrarianism’), or whether people who repeatedly outperform the mainstream are just lucky. ‘Incorrect contrarianism’ and ‘correct-by-coincidence contrarianism’ aren’t the only two possibilities.
1a. If you believe futurists have more expertise on the future, then they are more likely to be correct about cryonics.
1b. If you believe expertise needs tight feedback loops, they are less likely to be correct about cryonics.
1c. If you believe futurists are drawn towards optimistic views about they future, they are less likely to be correct about cryonics.
2.These people are contrarians
2a. If you believe they have a “correct contrarian cluster” of views, they are more likely to be correct about cryonics.
2b. If you believe that they arrived at contrarian views by chance, they are no more or less likely to be correct about cryonics.
2c. If you believe that they arrived at contrarian views because they are drawn to contrarian views, they are less likely to be correct about cryonics.
I believe 1b, 1c, and 2c. You believe 1a and 2a. Is that correct?
One of the most common ways they use the word “contrarian” is to refer to beliefs that are rejected by the mainstream, for whatever reason; by extension, contrarian people are people who hold contrarian beliefs. (E.g., Galileo is a standard example of a “correct contrarian” whether his primary motivation was rebelling against the establishment or discovering truth.) “Aesthetic preference” contrarianism is a separate idea; I don’t think it matters which definition we use for “contrarianism”.
I think it matters in this context. If these people are contrarian simply because they happen to have lots of different views, then it’s irrelevant that they’re contrarian. If they’re contrarian because they’re DRAWN towards contrarian views, it means they’re biased towards cryonics.
I agree it matters in this case, but it doesn’t matter whether we use the word “contrarianism” vs. tabooing it.
Also, your summary assumes one of the points under dispute: whether it’s possible to be good at arriving at true non-mainstream beliefs (‘correct contrarianism’), or whether people who repeatedly outperform the mainstream are just lucky. ‘Incorrect contrarianism’ and ‘correct-by-coincidence contrarianism’ aren’t the only two possibilities.
Ok, so to summarize:
These people are futurists.
1a. If you believe futurists have more expertise on the future, then they are more likely to be correct about cryonics.
1b. If you believe expertise needs tight feedback loops, they are less likely to be correct about cryonics.
1c. If you believe futurists are drawn towards optimistic views about they future, they are less likely to be correct about cryonics.
2.These people are contrarians
2a. If you believe they have a “correct contrarian cluster” of views, they are more likely to be correct about cryonics.
2b. If you believe that they arrived at contrarian views by chance, they are no more or less likely to be correct about cryonics.
2c. If you believe that they arrived at contrarian views because they are drawn to contrarian views, they are less likely to be correct about cryonics.
I believe 1b, 1c, and 2c. You believe 1a and 2a. Is that correct?