Robin Hanson posits that the reason why there isn’t wider adoption of prediction markets is because they are a threat to the authority of existing executives.
Before we reach for conspiracies, maybe we should investigate just how effective prediction markets actually are. I’m generally skeptical of arguments in the mold of “My pet project x isn’t being implemented due to the influence of shadowy interest group y.”
As someone unfamiliar with the field, are there any good studies on the effectiveness of PM?
There’s nothing shadowy about the claim that CEO’s like to be able to decide on the strategy of their company and don’t like the idea of giving up that power by delegating it to a prediction market.
To measure how effective it is for companies to let their strategy decision be guided by prediciton markets you would need some companies to do that. We don’t live in a world where that’s the case.
I’m not sure “conspiracy” is appropriate here. The existing Powers That Be (both political and corporate) have individual and collective interests in maintaining their current conditions. That they might each and all act to preserve the status quo (where they are powerful) probably does not actually require coordination of any kind, nor the secrecy that usually accompanies the term “conspiracy”. I expect that no matter how effective prediction markets are, they will generally lack the necessary slack to dominate the existing systems.
Before we reach for conspiracies, maybe we should investigate just how effective prediction markets actually are. I’m generally skeptical of arguments in the mold of “My pet project x isn’t being implemented due to the influence of shadowy interest group y.”
As someone unfamiliar with the field, are there any good studies on the effectiveness of PM?
There’s nothing shadowy about the claim that CEO’s like to be able to decide on the strategy of their company and don’t like the idea of giving up that power by delegating it to a prediction market.
To measure how effective it is for companies to let their strategy decision be guided by prediciton markets you would need some companies to do that. We don’t live in a world where that’s the case.
I’m not sure “conspiracy” is appropriate here. The existing Powers That Be (both political and corporate) have individual and collective interests in maintaining their current conditions. That they might each and all act to preserve the status quo (where they are powerful) probably does not actually require coordination of any kind, nor the secrecy that usually accompanies the term “conspiracy”. I expect that no matter how effective prediction markets are, they will generally lack the necessary slack to dominate the existing systems.