But statistical dependence does not imply large dependence nor does it imply useful dependence. The variety of psychology among people means that my decision is weak evidence of others’ decision, even if it is evidence. It doesn’t do much to alter my prior of how other observations have molded my expectations of people. (And this point applies doubly so in the case of autistic spectrum people like me who are e.g. surprised at other’s unwillingness to point out my easily correctible difficulties.)
Now, if we were talking about a situation confined to that one sub-algorithm, your point would still have validity. But the problem involves the interplay of other algorithms with even more uncertainty.
Plus, the inherent implausibility of the position (implied by TDT) that my decision to be more charitable must mean that other people just decided to become more charitable.
Well, one would actually take into account the degree of dependence when doing the relevant computation.
And your decision to be more charitable would correlate to others being so to the extent that they’re using related methods to come to their own decision.
Well, one would actually take into account the degree of dependence when doing the relevant computation.
Yes, and here’s what it would look like: I anticipate a 1⁄2 + e probability of the other person doing the same thing as me in the true PD. I’ll use the payoff matrix of
C D
C (3,3) (0,5)
D (5,0) (1,1)
where the first value is my utility. The expected payoff is then (after a little algebra):
If I cooperate: 3⁄2 + 3e; if I defect: 3 − 4e
Defection has a higher payoff as long as e is less than 3⁄14 (total probability of other person doing what I do = 10⁄14). So you should cooperate as long as you have over 0.137 bits of evidence that they will do what you do. Does the assumption that other people’s algorithm has a minor resemblance to mine get me that?
And your decision to be more charitable would correlate to others being so to the extent that they’re using related methods to come to their own decision.
Yes, and that’s the tough bullet to bite: me being more charitable, irrespective the impact of my charitable action, causes (me to observe) other people being more charitable.
But statistical dependence does not imply large dependence nor does it imply useful dependence. The variety of psychology among people means that my decision is weak evidence of others’ decision, even if it is evidence. It doesn’t do much to alter my prior of how other observations have molded my expectations of people. (And this point applies doubly so in the case of autistic spectrum people like me who are e.g. surprised at other’s unwillingness to point out my easily correctible difficulties.)
Now, if we were talking about a situation confined to that one sub-algorithm, your point would still have validity. But the problem involves the interplay of other algorithms with even more uncertainty.
Plus, the inherent implausibility of the position (implied by TDT) that my decision to be more charitable must mean that other people just decided to become more charitable.
Well, one would actually take into account the degree of dependence when doing the relevant computation.
And your decision to be more charitable would correlate to others being so to the extent that they’re using related methods to come to their own decision.
Yes, and here’s what it would look like: I anticipate a 1⁄2 + e probability of the other person doing the same thing as me in the true PD. I’ll use the payoff matrix of
C D
C (3,3) (0,5)
D (5,0) (1,1)
where the first value is my utility. The expected payoff is then (after a little algebra):
If I cooperate: 3⁄2 + 3e; if I defect: 3 − 4e
Defection has a higher payoff as long as e is less than 3⁄14 (total probability of other person doing what I do = 10⁄14). So you should cooperate as long as you have over 0.137 bits of evidence that they will do what you do. Does the assumption that other people’s algorithm has a minor resemblance to mine get me that?
Yes, and that’s the tough bullet to bite: me being more charitable, irrespective the impact of my charitable action, causes (me to observe) other people being more charitable.