It’s right to use our specialized knowledge to sound the alarm on risks we see, and to work as hard as possible to mitigate them. But the world is vaster than we comprehend, and we unavoidably overestimate how well it’s described by our own specific knowledge. Our job is to do the best we can, with joy and dignity, and to raise our children—should we be so fortunate as to have children—to do the same.
I once watched a lecture at a chess tournament where someone was going over a game, discussing the moves available to one of the players in a given position. He explained why one a specific move was the best choice, but someone in the audience interrupted. “But isn’t Black still losing here?” The speaker paused; you could see the wheels turning as he considered just what the questioner needed here. Finally he said, “The grandmaster doesn’t think about winning or losing. The grandmaster thinks about improving their position.” I don’t remember who won that game, but I remember the lesson.
Let’s be grandmasters. I’ve felt 100% confident of many things that did not come to pass, though my belief in them was well-informed and well-reasoned. Certainty in general reflects an incomplete view; one can know this without knowing exactly where the incompleteness lies, and without being untrue to what we do know.
Strong upvote—thank you for this post.
It’s right to use our specialized knowledge to sound the alarm on risks we see, and to work as hard as possible to mitigate them. But the world is vaster than we comprehend, and we unavoidably overestimate how well it’s described by our own specific knowledge. Our job is to do the best we can, with joy and dignity, and to raise our children—should we be so fortunate as to have children—to do the same.
I once watched a lecture at a chess tournament where someone was going over a game, discussing the moves available to one of the players in a given position. He explained why one a specific move was the best choice, but someone in the audience interrupted. “But isn’t Black still losing here?” The speaker paused; you could see the wheels turning as he considered just what the questioner needed here. Finally he said, “The grandmaster doesn’t think about winning or losing. The grandmaster thinks about improving their position.” I don’t remember who won that game, but I remember the lesson.
Let’s be grandmasters. I’ve felt 100% confident of many things that did not come to pass, though my belief in them was well-informed and well-reasoned. Certainty in general reflects an incomplete view; one can know this without knowing exactly where the incompleteness lies, and without being untrue to what we do know.