These are public bets that have some features of a prediction market. People assign their probabilities to different possible outcomes, making a bet against the previous participant in the market. Participants receive “Bayes points” based on the accuracy of their predictions, and there is a scoreboard which aggregates the results from closed markets
These things are not perfect, they lack certain features of a real market. This is why I am proposing to introduce actual prediction markets
Markets work because there are strong incentives to be right and it’s quite painful to be wrong. This means that you must put at risk valuable things, usually money.
If you want the prediction markets to operate using “Bayes points”, these points must be valuable and their supply must be limited. In other words, they must be like money. That’s… going to be a problem.
What does that mean? That people make public bets against each other? I’m not sure that’s enough to qualify as a “market”.
First, I don’t think LW karma = credibility. Second, karma is, let’s say, prone to inflation :-/
These are public bets that have some features of a prediction market. People assign their probabilities to different possible outcomes, making a bet against the previous participant in the market. Participants receive “Bayes points” based on the accuracy of their predictions, and there is a scoreboard which aggregates the results from closed markets
These things are not perfect, they lack certain features of a real market. This is why I am proposing to introduce actual prediction markets
Markets work because there are strong incentives to be right and it’s quite painful to be wrong. This means that you must put at risk valuable things, usually money.
If you want the prediction markets to operate using “Bayes points”, these points must be valuable and their supply must be limited. In other words, they must be like money. That’s… going to be a problem.