This is the PredictIt line for him on 6⁄30, and Scott’s predicting this out to January 1. I’m guessing that he didn’t notice? Otherwise, given how many things can go wrong, it’s a rather large disagreement – those wacky Israelis have elections constantly. I’m going to sell this down to 30% even though I have system 1 intuitions he’s not going anywhere. Math is math.
I would buy at this price, probably up to 50%, but there are some wrinkles to how it gets resolved. At least 45% of the population really really wants him as PM, and the other 55% doesn’t have a favorite, but 2/3rds are very strongly opposed to Netanyahu. If he is temporarily no longer PM due to the sharing agreement during the run-up to another election, but then wins, does that resolve yes, or no? (This seems remarkably plausible.)
But as a disclaimer, I’m bad (and somewhat poorly calibrated) at predicting things I’m emotionally invested in, and, well...
Further update: Happy I bought $100 at $0.31. Even happier I bought more at $0.17 when the market dropped as Netanyahu didn’t form a coalition. Of course, Bennett/Lapid might still pull this off, but the market is now at $0.42.
I would buy at this price, probably up to 50%, but there are some wrinkles to how it gets resolved. At least 45% of the population really really wants him as PM, and the other 55% doesn’t have a favorite, but 2/3rds are very strongly opposed to Netanyahu. If he is temporarily no longer PM due to the sharing agreement during the run-up to another election, but then wins, does that resolve yes, or no? (This seems remarkably plausible.)
But as a disclaimer, I’m bad (and somewhat poorly calibrated) at predicting things I’m emotionally invested in, and, well...
https://polymarket.com/market/will-benjamin-netanyahu-remain-prime-minister-of-israel-through-june-30-2021 If you want to, you can in fact bet that Netanyahu will be PM on June 30th at 30c
Want to sell me USDC on there in exchange for paypal, so I can bet? (I’ll gladly pay a 2% “commission” for, say, $200 in USDC.)
I’m happy to; no commission needed. If anyone else wants to get money from fiat into polymarket easily with no fee, just let me know
Update: we did this, I bought shares, we’ll see how it goes.
Further update: Happy I bought $100 at $0.31. Even happier I bought more at $0.17 when the market dropped as Netanyahu didn’t form a coalition. Of course, Bennett/Lapid might still pull this off, but the market is now at $0.42.