It is very, very clear that at present rates of progress, adding that level of alignment capability as grown over the next N years, to the AGI capability that arrives after N years, results in everybody dying very quickly.
This is a claim I basically agree with.
I don’t think the situation is entirely hopeless, but I don’t think any of the current plans (or the current alignment field) are on track to save us.
Follow-up
One of Eliezer’s claims here is
This is a claim I basically agree with.
I don’t think the situation is entirely hopeless, but I don’t think any of the current plans (or the current alignment field) are on track to save us.