I’m also Australian, though not in New South Wales. Prior to the current NSW outbreak, localised and usually short lockdowns (generally one city, or at worst one state at a time) had been overwhelmingly effective at keeping the rest of the nation both COVID-free and free of restrictions.
While I do disagree with a great deal that Australia’s various governments have been doing, that has not been one of them.
The current outbreak has come as shock for two reasons: first is that the NSW state government was slower than every other state to act, breaking the implicit deal of fast temporary sacrifices to eliminate transmission and protect everyone else. The second is that this is the Delta variant, known to be more transmissible.
Both of these meant that the NSW outbreak rapidly grew to a size that outpaced testing tracing and isolation, meaning that lockdown measures would take much longer and also require more stringent restrictions to eliminate than any previous outbreak. The NSW premier made the decision to abandon that approach altogether. The new strategy is to rush mass vaccinations and then stop most restrictions.
Projections show various Sydney hospitals being overwhelmed within weeks if restrictions are dropped now. So it’s now a three-way balance over the next 6-8 weeks between vaccine supply, already stretched hospital capacity, and the ability of people and businesses to endure whatever restrictions are needed to keep the hospitals functioning and reduce avoidable deaths.
I’m also Australian, though not in New South Wales. Prior to the current NSW outbreak, localised and usually short lockdowns (generally one city, or at worst one state at a time) had been overwhelmingly effective at keeping the rest of the nation both COVID-free and free of restrictions.
While I do disagree with a great deal that Australia’s various governments have been doing, that has not been one of them.
The current outbreak has come as shock for two reasons: first is that the NSW state government was slower than every other state to act, breaking the implicit deal of fast temporary sacrifices to eliminate transmission and protect everyone else. The second is that this is the Delta variant, known to be more transmissible.
Both of these meant that the NSW outbreak rapidly grew to a size that outpaced testing tracing and isolation, meaning that lockdown measures would take much longer and also require more stringent restrictions to eliminate than any previous outbreak. The NSW premier made the decision to abandon that approach altogether. The new strategy is to rush mass vaccinations and then stop most restrictions.
Projections show various Sydney hospitals being overwhelmed within weeks if restrictions are dropped now. So it’s now a three-way balance over the next 6-8 weeks between vaccine supply, already stretched hospital capacity, and the ability of people and businesses to endure whatever restrictions are needed to keep the hospitals functioning and reduce avoidable deaths.
I agree,
tbh it surprised me how infectious the delta variant is. I just could not update hard enough even against what happened in India.
I do hope that the vaccine push is hard and fast enough, but I suppose we will see how it is going to turn out in the next 2 weeks.
this quote from NSW health is giving me hope
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20210912_00.aspx