I think most worlds, surviving or not, don’t have a plan in the sense that Eliezer is asking about.
I do agree that in the best worlds, there are quite a lot of very good plans and extensive analysis of how they would play out (even if it’s not the biggest input into decision-making). Indeed, I think there are a lot of things that the best possible world would be doing that we aren’t, and I’d give that world a very low probability of doom even if alignment was literally impossible-in-principle.
I think most worlds, surviving or not, don’t have a plan in the sense that Eliezer is asking about.
I do agree that in the best worlds, there are quite a lot of very good plans and extensive analysis of how they would play out (even if it’s not the biggest input into decision-making). Indeed, I think there are a lot of things that the best possible world would be doing that we aren’t, and I’d give that world a very low probability of doom even if alignment was literally impossible-in-principle.
ETA: this is closely related to Richard’s point in the sibling.