I’m guessing ~15% on singularity by 2030 and ~40% on singularity by 2040
These figures surprise me, I thought that you believed in shorter timelines because from Agreements #8 in your post where you said “[Transformative AI] is more likely to be years than decades, and there’s a real chance that it’s months”, .
~40% by 2040 sounds like an expectation of transformative AI probably taking decades. (Unless I’m drawing a false equivalence between transformative AI and what you mean by “singularity”.)
In agreement #8 I’m talking about the time from “large impact on the world” (say increasing GDP by 10%, automating a significant fraction of knowledge work, “feeling like TAI is near,” something like that) to “transformative impact on the world” (say singularity, or 1-2 year doubling times, something like that). I think right now the impact of AI on the world is very small compared to this standard.
These figures surprise me, I thought that you believed in shorter timelines because from Agreements #8 in your post where you said “[Transformative AI] is more likely to be years than decades, and there’s a real chance that it’s months”, .
~40% by 2040 sounds like an expectation of transformative AI probably taking decades. (Unless I’m drawing a false equivalence between transformative AI and what you mean by “singularity”.)
In agreement #8 I’m talking about the time from “large impact on the world” (say increasing GDP by 10%, automating a significant fraction of knowledge work, “feeling like TAI is near,” something like that) to “transformative impact on the world” (say singularity, or 1-2 year doubling times, something like that). I think right now the impact of AI on the world is very small compared to this standard.
Thanks, that makes it more clear to me the two different periods of time you’re talking about.