I disagree with the community on that. Knocking out silver turing, Montezuma (in the way described), 90% equivalent on Winogrande, and 75th percentile on maths SAT will either take longer to be actually demonstrated in a unified ML system, OR it will happen way sooner than 39 months before “an AI which can perform any task humans can perform in 2021, as well or superior to the best humans in their domain.”, which is incredibly broad. If the questions mean what they are written to mean, as I read them, it’s a hell of a lot more than 39 months (median community estimate).
The thing I said is about some important scenarios described by people giving significant probability to a hostile hard takeoff scenario. I included the comment here in this subthread because I don’t think it contributed much to the discussion.
I disagree with the community on that. Knocking out silver turing, Montezuma (in the way described), 90% equivalent on Winogrande, and 75th percentile on maths SAT will either take longer to be actually demonstrated in a unified ML system, OR it will happen way sooner than 39 months before “an AI which can perform any task humans can perform in 2021, as well or superior to the best humans in their domain.”, which is incredibly broad. If the questions mean what they are written to mean, as I read them, it’s a hell of a lot more than 39 months (median community estimate).
The thing I said is about some important scenarios described by people giving significant probability to a hostile hard takeoff scenario. I included the comment here in this subthread because I don’t think it contributed much to the discussion.