If a mind is arriving at true beliefs, and we assume that the second law of thermodynamics has not been violated, that mind must be doing something at least vaguely Bayesian—at least one process with a sort-of Bayesian structure somewhere—or it couldn’t possibly work.
If by “vaguely Bayesian” EY means “extrapolated from previous experience, without doing any calculations”, then it is vacuously true and so not much of an insight. if there is more to it, I would appreciate if someone spelled it out for me.
If by “vaguely Bayesian” EY means “extrapolated from previous experience, without doing any calculations”, then it is vacuously true and so not much of an insight. if there is more to it, I would appreciate if someone spelled it out for me.