Well, in 11 out of 145 answers (7.5%) I so far have answered 99%, and I have yet to be wrong in any of my answers.
If I continue at this rate, in approximately 1,174 more answers, I’ll be able to tell you if I am well callibrated (less, if I fail at more than one answer in the intervening time)
To clarify, wrong in any of my answers at the 99% level. I have been wrong at other levels (including, surprisingly, hovering within around 1% of 90% at the 90% level.
Well, in 11 out of 145 answers (7.5%) I so far have answered 99%, and I have yet to be wrong in any of my answers.
If I continue at this rate, in approximately 1,174 more answers, I’ll be able to tell you if I am well callibrated (less, if I fail at more than one answer in the intervening time)
To clarify, wrong in any of my answers at the 99% level. I have been wrong at other levels (including, surprisingly, hovering within around 1% of 90% at the 90% level.