I’m not sure this is an accurate characterization of the point; my understanding is that the concern largely comes from the possibility that the growth will be faster than exponential
Sure, if someone was arguing that, then they have a valid understanding of the difference between continuous vs. discontinuous takeoff. I would just question the assumption why we should expect growth to be faster than exponential for any sustained period of time.
To be clear, intelligence explosion via recursive self-improvement has been distinguished from merely exponential growth at least as far back as Yudkowsky’s “Three Major Singularity Schools”. I couldn’t remember the particular link when I wrote the comment above, but, well, now I remember it.
Anyway, I don’t have a particular argument one way or the other; I’m just registering my surprise that you encountered people here arguing for merely exponential growth base on intelligence explosion arguments.
Empirically, most systems with a feedback loop don’t grow hyperbolically. I would need strong theoretical reasons in order to understand why this particular distinction is important.
I don’t really want to go trying to defend here a position I don’t necessarily hold, but I do have to nitpick and point out that there’s quite a bit of room inbetween exponential and hyperbolic.
Sure, if someone was arguing that, then they have a valid understanding of the difference between continuous vs. discontinuous takeoff. I would just question the assumption why we should expect growth to be faster than exponential for any sustained period of time.
To be clear, intelligence explosion via recursive self-improvement has been distinguished from merely exponential growth at least as far back as Yudkowsky’s “Three Major Singularity Schools”. I couldn’t remember the particular link when I wrote the comment above, but, well, now I remember it.
Anyway, I don’t have a particular argument one way or the other; I’m just registering my surprise that you encountered people here arguing for merely exponential growth base on intelligence explosion arguments.
Empirically, most systems with a feedback loop don’t grow hyperbolically. I would need strong theoretical reasons in order to understand why this particular distinction is important.
I don’t really want to go trying to defend here a position I don’t necessarily hold, but I do have to nitpick and point out that there’s quite a bit of room inbetween exponential and hyperbolic.