I’m confused; why don’t you just pick black with probability 100%? (Assuming that your utility is 1 if you make the on-further-reflection-correct choice, 0 else.)
This isn’t the same thing as knowing what you’re going to think at the end of your fretting—you still don’t know—but the correct response to uncertainty is not half speed, and just picking the 40%-to-be-right option all of the time is the expectancy-maximizing response to uncertainty.
I’m confused; why don’t you just pick black with probability 100%? (Assuming that your utility is 1 if you make the on-further-reflection-correct choice, 0 else.)
This isn’t the same thing as knowing what you’re going to think at the end of your fretting—you still don’t know—but the correct response to uncertainty is not half speed, and just picking the 40%-to-be-right option all of the time is the expectancy-maximizing response to uncertainty.