It appears that metaculus’ forecasts are not internally consistent
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9062/time-from-weak-agi-to-superintelligence/
Community Prediction: 42.6 months
Difference in criteria.
Yes, but the criteria still imply that the gap should be ≥ the difference in the other two forecasts.
It appears that metaculus’ forecasts are not internally consistent
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9062/time-from-weak-agi-to-superintelligence/
Difference in criteria.
Yes, but the criteria still imply that the gap should be ≥ the difference in the other two forecasts.