Is everyone here properly aware of anthropics? e.g. that correctly ordered neurons for human intelligence might have had a 1-in-a-quadrillion chance of ever evolving naturally. But it would still look like a probable evolutionary outcome to us, because that is the course evolution must have taken in order for us to be born.
All the “failed intelligence” offshoots like mammals and insects would still be generated either way, it’s just a question of how improbably difficult it is to replicate the remaining milestones are between them and us. Notably, lesser-brained lifeforms appear to be much more successful e.g. insects and then plants, and the recent neural networks were made by plagarizing the neuron, which is the most visible and easily copied part of the human brain.
It’s only a possibility, but I don’t see why it isn’t doing more to push timelines outward.
One thing to note in general is that AFAICT anthropic hypotheses take huge penalties compared to non-anthropic hypotheses, depending on how much anthropic lifting is required to explain our observations.
This could be the case. However, my instinct is that human intelligence is only incrementally higher than other animals. Sure, we crossed a threshold that allowed us to accomplish great things (language, culture, specialization), but I would honestly be shocked if you told me that evolution was incapable of producing another similarly intelligent species if it started from the baseline intelligence of, say wolves, or crows. If there is a “1-in-a-quadrillion chance” somewhere in our history, I expect that filter to be much further back than the recent evolution of hominids.
I don’t have research to back this up. Just explaining why I personally wouldn’t push timelines back significantly based on the anthropic principle.
Is everyone here properly aware of anthropics? e.g. that correctly ordered neurons for human intelligence might have had a 1-in-a-quadrillion chance of ever evolving naturally. But it would still look like a probable evolutionary outcome to us, because that is the course evolution must have taken in order for us to be born.
All the “failed intelligence” offshoots like mammals and insects would still be generated either way, it’s just a question of how improbably difficult it is to replicate the remaining milestones are between them and us. Notably, lesser-brained lifeforms appear to be much more successful e.g. insects and then plants, and the recent neural networks were made by plagarizing the neuron, which is the most visible and easily copied part of the human brain.
It’s only a possibility, but I don’t see why it isn’t doing more to push timelines outward.
See https://www.nickbostrom.com/aievolution.pdf for a discussion about why such arguments probably don’t end up pushing timelines forward that much.
One thing to note in general is that AFAICT anthropic hypotheses take huge penalties compared to non-anthropic hypotheses, depending on how much anthropic lifting is required to explain our observations.
This could be the case. However, my instinct is that human intelligence is only incrementally higher than other animals. Sure, we crossed a threshold that allowed us to accomplish great things (language, culture, specialization), but I would honestly be shocked if you told me that evolution was incapable of producing another similarly intelligent species if it started from the baseline intelligence of, say wolves, or crows. If there is a “1-in-a-quadrillion chance” somewhere in our history, I expect that filter to be much further back than the recent evolution of hominids.
I don’t have research to back this up. Just explaining why I personally wouldn’t push timelines back significantly based on the anthropic principle.