One thing that jumped out at me when reading this is that you were counting something as a discontinuity (a relative rate of change) by looking at how many years it jumped ahead (an absolute rate of change). This effectively rules out most recent technologies because the rate of technological progress is already quite high, so you’d have a much harder time jumping 100 years ahead of schedule now than you would have in the past.
I would think that a better metric would be to use some measure of general technological progress as a a base (the x-axis) instead of absolute number of years. I strongly suspect that you would find quite a few more discontinuities this way which were otherwise ruled out because they didn’t “jump far enough ahead”. For example, I suspect that AlexNet would be a discontinuity on this metric.
One thing that jumped out at me when reading this is that you were counting something as a discontinuity (a relative rate of change) by looking at how many years it jumped ahead (an absolute rate of change). This effectively rules out most recent technologies because the rate of technological progress is already quite high, so you’d have a much harder time jumping 100 years ahead of schedule now than you would have in the past.
I would think that a better metric would be to use some measure of general technological progress as a a base (the x-axis) instead of absolute number of years. I strongly suspect that you would find quite a few more discontinuities this way which were otherwise ruled out because they didn’t “jump far enough ahead”. For example, I suspect that AlexNet would be a discontinuity on this metric.