Nobody in this conversation made such a claim that I’m aware of.
I read wedrifid’s post as stating that, in a bit more polite terms.
religious conservatism would be counterevidence to the overlap of intelligence and rationality.
So what does this actually mean? You see a girl, she looks intelligent and rational, you learn that she’s a conservative Christian and you go “Oh, she isn’t intelligent at all, my mistake”..?
I read wedrifid’s post as stating that, in a bit more polite terms.
I affirm Desrtopa’s interpretation, as well as Eliezer’s reminder about how conjunction works.
To reiterate: When you encounter ”!(A AND B)” it does not mean “Let X equal whichever of !A and !B is most objectionable and claim that !(A AND B) is equivalent to X”.
How do you tell that she “looks intelligent and rational?”
If you have some other information that already screens off the evidence from knowing that she’s a religious conservative, it doesn’t adjust your probability, but if you don’t, then you adjust your probability estimate that she falls into the overlap of “intelligent” and “rational” downwards.
If you know a particular human is three feet tall, but do not have access to other personal information about them, then it’s possible they’re an adult, but your best guess should be that they’re probably not.
Would the downgrade from 99.999999% to 99.999998% be satisfactory? :-)
Depends how much information you already have.
I would say it would be awfully hard to get enough information to raise the probability of someone having both high intelligence and high general rationality to 99.999999% in the first place without finding out whether the person was a religious conservative or not, so I would say “possibly, but not in realistic formulations.”
Let’s leave “intelligent” aside and focus on the “rational” necessary condition for being “intelligent and rational.” Also, let’s dig down past the label “conservative Christian” (or “conservative Catholic,” as Chris actually said) to some of the beliefs that constitute conservative Christianity and conservative Catholicism. For example, in the American context, a conservative Christian who isn’t Catholic is probably some variety of creationist, and quite likely a young-earth creationist. Finding out that a person is a YEC would reduce my probability estimate that that person is rational to effectively zero, regardless of what else they had said up to that point; in my experience, it is not possible for a person to know enough about rationality to practice it, and simultaneously be ignorant enough of the natural sciences to believe that the Earth was created in essentially its present form with its present biota less than 10,000 years ago.
Being a conservative Catholic, as I understand that phrase, necessarily entails believing that homosexuality and contraception are morally wrong according to “natural law” which can supposedly be derived without recourse to divine revelation, and also believing that the College of Cardinals, a group of men who conspired to conceal the sexual abuse of children on a massive scale and thus enable it to continue for decades, are the best possible arbiters of morality for the rest of us. (If you don’t believe those two things, you may still be a liberal Catholic, but you are not a conservative one.) Those beliefs are likewise not ones that someone can both hold and be a rational person. They do not, however, preclude intelligence; I would note Justice Antonin Scalia as an excellent example of a highly intelligent, deeply irrational conservative Catholic who uses his intelligence in the service of his irrational beliefs and goals.
So what does this actually mean? You see a girl, she looks intelligent and rational, you learn that she’s a conservative Christian and you go “Oh, she isn’t intelligent at all, my mistake”..?
Not a very charitable interpretation. How about this instead:
If someone is a conservative Christian then that fact makes it less likely that person is rational.
Similarly:
If someone is deaf then it is less likely that they are a great pianist.
I can affirm that statement and still believe that Beethoven existed, without implying any insult to Beethoven.
I read wedrifid’s post as stating that, in a bit more polite terms.
So what does this actually mean? You see a girl, she looks intelligent and rational, you learn that she’s a conservative Christian and you go “Oh, she isn’t intelligent at all, my mistake”..?
I affirm Desrtopa’s interpretation, as well as Eliezer’s reminder about how conjunction works.
To reiterate: When you encounter ”!(A AND B)” it does not mean “Let X equal whichever of !A and !B is most objectionable and claim that !(A AND B) is equivalent to X”.
How do you tell that she “looks intelligent and rational?”
If you have some other information that already screens off the evidence from knowing that she’s a religious conservative, it doesn’t adjust your probability, but if you don’t, then you adjust your probability estimate that she falls into the overlap of “intelligent” and “rational” downwards.
If you know a particular human is three feet tall, but do not have access to other personal information about them, then it’s possible they’re an adult, but your best guess should be that they’re probably not.
By talking to her.
Would the downgrade from 99.999999% to 99.999998% be satisfactory? :-)
Depends how much information you already have.
I would say it would be awfully hard to get enough information to raise the probability of someone having both high intelligence and high general rationality to 99.999999% in the first place without finding out whether the person was a religious conservative or not, so I would say “possibly, but not in realistic formulations.”
OK, let’s change the numbers to 70% and 69.9999999% -- is that good?
Let’s leave “intelligent” aside and focus on the “rational” necessary condition for being “intelligent and rational.” Also, let’s dig down past the label “conservative Christian” (or “conservative Catholic,” as Chris actually said) to some of the beliefs that constitute conservative Christianity and conservative Catholicism. For example, in the American context, a conservative Christian who isn’t Catholic is probably some variety of creationist, and quite likely a young-earth creationist. Finding out that a person is a YEC would reduce my probability estimate that that person is rational to effectively zero, regardless of what else they had said up to that point; in my experience, it is not possible for a person to know enough about rationality to practice it, and simultaneously be ignorant enough of the natural sciences to believe that the Earth was created in essentially its present form with its present biota less than 10,000 years ago.
Being a conservative Catholic, as I understand that phrase, necessarily entails believing that homosexuality and contraception are morally wrong according to “natural law” which can supposedly be derived without recourse to divine revelation, and also believing that the College of Cardinals, a group of men who conspired to conceal the sexual abuse of children on a massive scale and thus enable it to continue for decades, are the best possible arbiters of morality for the rest of us. (If you don’t believe those two things, you may still be a liberal Catholic, but you are not a conservative one.) Those beliefs are likewise not ones that someone can both hold and be a rational person. They do not, however, preclude intelligence; I would note Justice Antonin Scalia as an excellent example of a highly intelligent, deeply irrational conservative Catholic who uses his intelligence in the service of his irrational beliefs and goals.
Probably not, no. In general, it’s just not that weak evidence.
Not a very charitable interpretation. How about this instead: If someone is a conservative Christian then that fact makes it less likely that person is rational.
Similarly: If someone is deaf then it is less likely that they are a great pianist.
I can affirm that statement and still believe that Beethoven existed, without implying any insult to Beethoven.