I don’t off hand, but I also haven’t investigated this thoroughly. My understanding is that one of the stock crashes in the 20s lead to no recession, but I’m not finding the post I read.
The only real crashes were 1921, which was mid-recession, 1929-33, which was caused by the Depression getting under way, and 1937, which was mid-Depression.
For all the sound and fury at the time, it wasn’t all that big a bubble. The trough was only barely a 52-week low—the Dow closed Black Monday at 1739, the previous 52-week low was 1808, and by Wednesday it was back up over 2000. (Admittedly, it did keep bouncing around for a while).
Certainly it is common for bubbles to lead to recessions, but with good monetary policy, it does not need to.
Do you have any good real-world examples of this happening?
I don’t off hand, but I also haven’t investigated this thoroughly. My understanding is that one of the stock crashes in the 20s lead to no recession, but I’m not finding the post I read.
Here’s the DJIA for 1920-1940: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia19201940.html
The only real crashes were 1921, which was mid-recession, 1929-33, which was caused by the Depression getting under way, and 1937, which was mid-Depression.
1987) is the example typically offered by propotents of that position.
For all the sound and fury at the time, it wasn’t all that big a bubble. The trough was only barely a 52-week low—the Dow closed Black Monday at 1739, the previous 52-week low was 1808, and by Wednesday it was back up over 2000. (Admittedly, it did keep bouncing around for a while).