Short answer is yes, it mostly does, but they’ll test me anyway. I didn’t have to agree to anything that could possibly prevent me from receiving the best healthcare I would otherwise get. I’m pretty sure/hope such a condition would not have been allowed by any IRB.
I spoke with a pathologist in my family and together we estimated that a positive blood antibody test ~2 weeks after the 2nd vaccine dose would have a likelihood ratio on the order of 50:1 or more in favor of having had a response to the vaccine. (This is specific to me—my lifestyle protects me very well from possible infection (I have close contact with very few people, most of whom have received a vaccine themselves or have recovered from covid a couple of months ago); I would reduce this estimate for an average person). So if we find antibodies in my blood about a month from now I would be quite comfortable concluding I received the vaccine (recall the prior odds are 2:1 in favor, updating based on the test makes it 100:1; a near certainty). Likewise a negative blood antibody test would strongly I did not receive the vaccine.
You are way better than average at avoiding infection then. CDC estimated that from February to December that there were a total of 83.1 million infections in US, over 20% of population.
Short answer is yes, it mostly does, but they’ll test me anyway. I didn’t have to agree to anything that could possibly prevent me from receiving the best healthcare I would otherwise get. I’m pretty sure/hope such a condition would not have been allowed by any IRB.
I spoke with a pathologist in my family and together we estimated that a positive blood antibody test ~2 weeks after the 2nd vaccine dose would have a likelihood ratio on the order of 50:1 or more in favor of having had a response to the vaccine. (This is specific to me—my lifestyle protects me very well from possible infection (I have close contact with very few people, most of whom have received a vaccine themselves or have recovered from covid a couple of months ago); I would reduce this estimate for an average person). So if we find antibodies in my blood about a month from now I would be quite comfortable concluding I received the vaccine (recall the prior odds are 2:1 in favor, updating based on the test makes it 100:1; a near certainty). Likewise a negative blood antibody test would strongly I did not receive the vaccine.
You are way better than average at avoiding infection then. CDC estimated that from February to December that there were a total of 83.1 million infections in US, over 20% of population.