I’ve been using Forecast since the beta and enjoy it! A few thoughts:
There isn’t enough incentive to bet on questions with long time horizons.
The 1K points/day are rather inflationary overall, which leads to...
A question’s market can be moved rather significantly for just a few thousand points
Why is there a max of 10 shares per bet? Especially with the 1K daily point increase, any user who sticks around will have tens of thousands of points, and have a harder time allocating them
The leaderboard is opaque and varies wildly: I’m sometimes in the top 10, sometimes in the middle hundreds, and sometimes unranked, despite a consistent upward trajectory.
Thank you for using the app and for all your feedback. This may be hard to believe, but we’re actually working on fixes for every issue you mentioned except the long time horizons! In particular, we have the following scoped into our current sprint: 1) improve our in-app economy management (i.e. so there’s not so many inflationary points), 2) increasing the max share limit, and 3) updating the leaderboard to be less swing-y.
The reason the leaderboard varies so drastically is that we use current liquidation value (how much you would get if you tried to sell your whole position this minute) rather than #shares X market price to calculate the leaderboard. As a result, if you have a big, market-moving position, you don’t get the credit for it until the question closes in your favor. We’ve been using this value because we thought it would be a more accurate representation of your position in the market. It turns out it just confuses people and penalizes ‘value investing’. Whoops!
We don’t have a good answer on incentivizing long time horizon questions. We’ve thought about giving points bonuses or possibly some form of dividend for holding questions for a long time. We’re very open to feedback on this one.
I’ve been using Forecast since the beta and enjoy it! A few thoughts:
There isn’t enough incentive to bet on questions with long time horizons.
The 1K points/day are rather inflationary overall, which leads to...
A question’s market can be moved rather significantly for just a few thousand points
Why is there a max of 10 shares per bet? Especially with the 1K daily point increase, any user who sticks around will have tens of thousands of points, and have a harder time allocating them
The leaderboard is opaque and varies wildly: I’m sometimes in the top 10, sometimes in the middle hundreds, and sometimes unranked, despite a consistent upward trajectory.
Thank you for using the app and for all your feedback. This may be hard to believe, but we’re actually working on fixes for every issue you mentioned except the long time horizons! In particular, we have the following scoped into our current sprint: 1) improve our in-app economy management (i.e. so there’s not so many inflationary points), 2) increasing the max share limit, and 3) updating the leaderboard to be less swing-y.
The reason the leaderboard varies so drastically is that we use current liquidation value (how much you would get if you tried to sell your whole position this minute) rather than #shares X market price to calculate the leaderboard. As a result, if you have a big, market-moving position, you don’t get the credit for it until the question closes in your favor. We’ve been using this value because we thought it would be a more accurate representation of your position in the market. It turns out it just confuses people and penalizes ‘value investing’. Whoops!
We don’t have a good answer on incentivizing long time horizon questions. We’ve thought about giving points bonuses or possibly some form of dividend for holding questions for a long time. We’re very open to feedback on this one.