The book behind the paper includes lots more detail. Its introduction is quite cheery:
The end of dramatic exponential growth in single-processor performance marks the end of the dominance of the single microprocessor in computing… There is no guarantee that we can make parallel computing as common and easy to use as yesterday’s sequential single-processor computer systems, but unless we aggressively pursue efforts suggested by the recommendations below, it will be “game over” for growth in computing performance. If parallel programming and related software efforts fail to become widespread, the development of exciting new applications that drive the computer industry will stall; if such innovation stalls, many other parts of the economy will follow suit.
I have an engineer friend who has recently put forward the idea that computing technology is approaching becoming a ‘mature’ technology, like the automobile in the 1950s. It gets a job done and does it well, every change made after that point is a matter of small incremental tweaks. Yeah you get twice the gas mileage now as you did then after a load of small changes with diminishing returns, but is it really all that different? Other friends of mine working as programmers have reacted favorably when I relayed this idea.
Also, why should slower development of new applications for the computer industry kill the economy?
On page 15, you write:
No citation is given, but I found one: Fuller & Millett (2011). The paper includes this handy graph:
And also this one:
The book behind the paper includes lots more detail. Its introduction is quite cheery:
I have an engineer friend who has recently put forward the idea that computing technology is approaching becoming a ‘mature’ technology, like the automobile in the 1950s. It gets a job done and does it well, every change made after that point is a matter of small incremental tweaks. Yeah you get twice the gas mileage now as you did then after a load of small changes with diminishing returns, but is it really all that different? Other friends of mine working as programmers have reacted favorably when I relayed this idea.
Also, why should slower development of new applications for the computer industry kill the economy?