When I read this segment, I was compelled to comment:
A key component of the debate between Robin Hanson and myself was the question of locality. Consider: If there are increasing returns on knowledge given constant human brains—this being the main assumption that many non-intelligence-explosion, general technological-hypergrowth models rely on, with said assumption seemingly well-supported by exponential technology-driven productivity growth—then why isn’t the leading human nation vastly ahead of the runner-up economy? Shouldn’t the economy with the most knowledge be rising further and further ahead of its next-leading competitor, as its increasing returns compound? The obvious answer is that knowledge is not contained within the borders of one country; improvements within one country soon make their way across borders. China is experiencing greater growth per annum than Australia, on the order of 8% versus 3% RGDP growth.92 This is not because technology development in general has diminishing marginal returns. It is because China is experiencing very fast knowledge-driven growth as it catches up to already-produced knowledge that it can cheaply import.
There actually are historical examples of this happening between civilizations that had relatively little information transfer between them. Pre-Columbian America was far behind Europe, as was sub-Saharan Africa. China’s economic and technological development has also been relatively isolated from Europe until relatively recently; there were times where it was more advanced and times where it was less advanced.
There actually are historical examples of this happening between civilizations that had relatively little information transfer between them. Pre-Columbian America was far behind Europe, as was sub-Saharan Africa. China’s economic and technological development has also been relatively isolated from Europe until relatively recently; there were times where it was more advanced and times where it was less advanced.