The virus apparently has a mutation rate which is on the high end, unexpectedly large rate of mutation. This makes the vaccine less probable. How much less? No idea.
Certainly a moving target makes vaccines a bit problematic.
However, I would also be curious about the mutation path. Sounds like the underlying assumption here is that all mutations remain viable for infecting humans. I would be really interested in hearing (to the extent we might have a intuition on this) what the probabilities are for mutations to result in a human incompatibility. In other words, just how much variation is allowed before humans are not compatible with the virus.
What, if any, is the there here? Perhaps we can call this one a related questions, bacteria and in theory some other cellular organisms have formed symbiotic relationships both at the cellular and system/organ level with humans. Any indication that has ever happened with a virus?
Does anyone have any guesses on how long it might have taken to jump from bat to human? Ideally if we could be sure about the intermediate host we could do better but even there we might be able to estimate the time to mutate from any number or potential intermediates.
Certainly a moving target makes vaccines a bit problematic.
However, I would also be curious about the mutation path. Sounds like the underlying assumption here is that all mutations remain viable for infecting humans. I would be really interested in hearing (to the extent we might have a intuition on this) what the probabilities are for mutations to result in a human incompatibility. In other words, just how much variation is allowed before humans are not compatible with the virus.
What, if any, is the there here? Perhaps we can call this one a related questions, bacteria and in theory some other cellular organisms have formed symbiotic relationships both at the cellular and system/organ level with humans. Any indication that has ever happened with a virus?
Does anyone have any guesses on how long it might have taken to jump from bat to human? Ideally if we could be sure about the intermediate host we could do better but even there we might be able to estimate the time to mutate from any number or potential intermediates.
Any existing models there?