Well they’re at least more likely then our priors for them… they happened. Even with only a tiny prior that a coin is heads-biased, it landing heads is evidence for it.
You’re privileging a hypothesis of events that happened. It was never 50% current world:50% something else—then add the fact that current world happened, and we’re over 50% line.
Plenty of things which have happened had negligibly low probabilities.
Well they’re at least more likely then our priors for them… they happened. Even with only a tiny prior that a coin is heads-biased, it landing heads is evidence for it.
You’re privileging a hypothesis of events that happened. It was never 50% current world:50% something else—then add the fact that current world happened, and we’re over 50% line.
Plenty of things which have happened had negligibly low probabilities.