But there’s been research on this in recent years. See Bent Flyvbjerg’s papers on “strategic misrepresentation”, where he outlines how perverse incentives can lead people to intentionally make overconfident predictions in government work projects.
However, Flyvbjerg also points out that there is probably a combination of psychological factors involved, too, as we continue to see this kind of overconfidence/optimism in areas like student predictions or trading (where actively trading often does worse).
Very very very late reply.
But there’s been research on this in recent years. See Bent Flyvbjerg’s papers on “strategic misrepresentation”, where he outlines how perverse incentives can lead people to intentionally make overconfident predictions in government work projects.
However, Flyvbjerg also points out that there is probably a combination of psychological factors involved, too, as we continue to see this kind of overconfidence/optimism in areas like student predictions or trading (where actively trading often does worse).