On your last point, no. To put it colloquially, the simpler answer is more likely.
In practical terms, saying that all binary choices without evidence causes conflicts. Namely, if there’s a 50⁄50 chance that your consciousness dissolves when you die, and a 50⁄50 chance that a hidden FAI captures your brain state, and a 50⁄50 chance that a hidden UFAI captures your brain state. That implies that in every case that a FAI captures your brain state so does a UFAI.
On your last point, no. To put it colloquially, the simpler answer is more likely.
In practical terms, saying that all binary choices without evidence causes conflicts. Namely, if there’s a 50⁄50 chance that your consciousness dissolves when you die, and a 50⁄50 chance that a hidden FAI captures your brain state, and a 50⁄50 chance that a hidden UFAI captures your brain state. That implies that in every case that a FAI captures your brain state so does a UFAI.