I tend to think that anything that increases the standard of living and health of people in the third world probably does reduce some forms of existential risk, by reducing the risk of war, and reducing the number of people who would consider extreme forms of terrorism involving weapons of mass destruction, including those that may create a possible existential risk like genetically engineered bioweapons. People who see their health improving and their standard of living rising are much less likely to resort to such extreme measures.
I think the contribution that lessening poverty would make to dealing with existential risk is that there are presumably some very talented people (or potentially talented people who will only become so if they get enough food when young) who are blocked by poverty from doing the work to reduce existential risk.
Well, it’s not just about poverty per se. It’s really about the question of “is my society getting better” vs “is my society getting worse”. People who think that everything is getting better and that the future is looking like it’s going to be better then the past tend to go for ideas like “progress”, “incremental change”, ect. On the other hand, if it looks like your society is getting worse around you, you are more likely to be drawn to desperate measures.
Terrorist attacks or bloody revolutions usually happen when people have a sense that things should be getting better, but they’re getting worse instead.
The real goal here is to try to reduce the existential risk caused by the fact that it’s going to be easier and easier to make potentially extension-causing weapons. Now it takes a full superpower to create enough nuclear weapons to pose an existential risk, but in the near future, a small nation should be able to create weapons that are even more dangerous; and not long after that, an even smaller group will be able to. Now, if most of the world is made up of peaceful, prosperous democracies by the time we get to that point, then I think our odds of avoiding catastrophe are much higher.
I tend to think that anything that increases the standard of living and health of people in the third world probably does reduce some forms of existential risk, by reducing the risk of war, and reducing the number of people who would consider extreme forms of terrorism involving weapons of mass destruction, including those that may create a possible existential risk like genetically engineered bioweapons. People who see their health improving and their standard of living rising are much less likely to resort to such extreme measures.
Terrorists don’t tend to be very poor.
I think the contribution that lessening poverty would make to dealing with existential risk is that there are presumably some very talented people (or potentially talented people who will only become so if they get enough food when young) who are blocked by poverty from doing the work to reduce existential risk.
Well, it’s not just about poverty per se. It’s really about the question of “is my society getting better” vs “is my society getting worse”. People who think that everything is getting better and that the future is looking like it’s going to be better then the past tend to go for ideas like “progress”, “incremental change”, ect. On the other hand, if it looks like your society is getting worse around you, you are more likely to be drawn to desperate measures.
Terrorist attacks or bloody revolutions usually happen when people have a sense that things should be getting better, but they’re getting worse instead.
The real goal here is to try to reduce the existential risk caused by the fact that it’s going to be easier and easier to make potentially extension-causing weapons. Now it takes a full superpower to create enough nuclear weapons to pose an existential risk, but in the near future, a small nation should be able to create weapons that are even more dangerous; and not long after that, an even smaller group will be able to. Now, if most of the world is made up of peaceful, prosperous democracies by the time we get to that point, then I think our odds of avoiding catastrophe are much higher.