Well, “democratic transition” will not necessarily solve that (like basically it did not completely resolve the problem with the end of the Cold War), you are right, so actually, the probability must be higher than I estimated—even worse news. Is there any other options for decreasing the risk?
From a Russian perspective. Well, I didn’t discuss it with officials in the government, only with the friends who support the current government. So I can only say what they think and feel, and of course, it is just anecdotal evidence. When I explicitly discussed with one of them the possibility of the nuclear war, he stated that this possibility is small and as long as the escalation will be beneficial for Russia he will support it.
I don’t want to go here into politics and discuss what type of government would be better for Russia. I was more interested to estimate the probability of the nuclear war (or other catastrophes mentioned on the main post).
Well, “democratic transition” will not necessarily solve that (like basically it did not completely resolve the problem with the end of the Cold War), you are right, so actually, the probability must be higher than I estimated—even worse news.
Is there any other options for decreasing the risk?
From a Russian perspective. Well, I didn’t discuss it with officials in the government, only with the friends who support the current government. So I can only say what they think and feel, and of course, it is just anecdotal evidence. When I explicitly discussed with one of them the possibility of the nuclear war, he stated that this possibility is small and as long as the escalation will be beneficial for Russia he will support it.
I don’t want to go here into politics and discuss what type of government would be better for Russia. I was more interested to estimate the probability of the nuclear war (or other catastrophes mentioned on the main post).