As long as Russia can’t sell its phosphate because it’s been sanctioned out of SWIFT etc., 40% of the normal feedstock for fertilizers is out of play.
Russia produced ~13 million tons of phosphate in 2020[1]. This is ~5.8% of global phosphate production (and <1% of global phosphate reserves). This is significant; this is not 40%[2].
Compare the following quote: “According to industry analysts, the rated capacity of global phosphate rock mines was projected to increase to 261 million tons in 2024 from 238 million tons in 2020[1]”
This is ~23 million tons increase in 4 years, or an increase in global capacity of ~5.75 million tons / year. Russia suddenly dropping entirely from global production would be losing ~2.3 years of growth, which doesn’t immediately sound catastrophic. Significant, yes. Catastrophic, no.
I got the 40% from one of Peter Zeihan’s talks. I don’t know where he got it from, but I have yet to catch him in a clear error on statistics I know how to check.
Russia produced ~13 million tons of phosphate in 2020[1]. This is ~5.8% of global phosphate production (and <1% of global phosphate reserves). This is significant; this is not 40%[2].
Compare the following quote: “According to industry analysts, the rated capacity of global phosphate rock mines was projected to increase to 261 million tons in 2024 from 238 million tons in 2020[1]”
This is ~23 million tons increase in 4 years, or an increase in global capacity of ~5.75 million tons / year. Russia suddenly dropping entirely from global production would be losing ~2.3 years of growth, which doesn’t immediately sound catastrophic. Significant, yes. Catastrophic, no.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2021/mcs2021-phosphate.pdf
Admittedly, “phosphate production” != “phosphate production for fertilizers”.
I got the 40% from one of Peter Zeihan’s talks. I don’t know where he got it from, but I have yet to catch him in a clear error on statistics I know how to check.