See also my sibling comment at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CLXkgEerPi9MpJCem/moloch-and-the-sandpile-catastrophe?commentId=rsJMhBmsQjxZhZLHL
Russia dropping entirely from the phosphate market would be wiping out ~2.3 years of projected growth. Significant? Yes. Catastrophic? I don’t think so offhand.
See also my sibling comment at https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CLXkgEerPi9MpJCem/moloch-and-the-sandpile-catastrophe?commentId=rsJMhBmsQjxZhZLHL
Russia dropping entirely from the phosphate market would be wiping out ~2.3 years of projected growth. Significant? Yes. Catastrophic? I don’t think so offhand.