The post mentions the experts using the results of the SPR. What happens if you reverse it, and give the SPR the prediction of the expert?
That’s called a ‘bootstrapped’ SPR. It’s one way of building an SPR. And yes, in many cases the SPR ends up being reliably better than the expert judgments that were used to build it.
I was wondering more how much better it is than a normal SPR. Also, I wonder what weight it would give to the expert.
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The post mentions the experts using the results of the SPR. What happens if you reverse it, and give the SPR the prediction of the expert?
That’s called a ‘bootstrapped’ SPR. It’s one way of building an SPR. And yes, in many cases the SPR ends up being reliably better than the expert judgments that were used to build it.
I was wondering more how much better it is than a normal SPR. Also, I wonder what weight it would give to the expert.