For selfish reasons I hope that the mathematics profession lasts at least another decade. I was surprised to see that the timeline for an IMO gold medal here
did not shift very much, and am unsure if how little that moved has to do with how few users make predictions on that website. It would do me a great deal of practical and psychological good to see more accurate predictions about progress in mathematics in particular in the future, so I hope you can achieve that. Thank you and your group for producing the MATH dataset.
Well, I know at least one assistant professor who couldn’t win gold at the IMO. However, I would be extremely surprised if AI were able to supplant me before winning IMO gold.
For selfish reasons I hope that the mathematics profession lasts at least another decade. I was surprised to see that the timeline for an IMO gold medal here
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/
did not shift very much, and am unsure if how little that moved has to do with how few users make predictions on that website. It would do me a great deal of practical and psychological good to see more accurate predictions about progress in mathematics in particular in the future, so I hope you can achieve that. Thank you and your group for producing the MATH dataset.
It actually shifted quite a lot. From “in 10 years” to “in 7 years”, a 30% reduction!
how many mathematicians could win the gold at the IMO
I understand its for under 18s but I imagine there are a lot of mathematicians that wouldnt be able to do it either right?
Well, I know at least one assistant professor who couldn’t win gold at the IMO. However, I would be extremely surprised if AI were able to supplant me before winning IMO gold.