If everyone is so bad at this, is it a reasonable strategy to just bet against the market even more aggressively, making $ on prediction market platforms?
On a similar note, does it make sense to raise a charity fund and bet a lot of money on “AGI by 2025”, motivating forecasters to produce more reasonable predictions?
If everyone is so bad at this, is it a reasonable strategy to just bet against the market even more aggressively, making $ on prediction market platforms?
On a similar note, does it make sense to raise a charity fund and bet a lot of money on “AGI by 2025”, motivating forecasters to produce more reasonable predictions?