“Only humans are conscious” should indeed have a lower prior probability than “Only physical systems specified in some way are conscious”, since the latter must be true for the former to be true but not the other way around.
However, whether or not only humans are conscious is not the issue. Most people think that many or all animals are conscious, but they do not think that “all physical systems are conscious.” And this is not because of the prior probabilities, but is a conclusion drawn from evidence. The reason people think this way is that they see that they themselves appear to do certain things because they are conscious, and other people and animals do similar things, so it is reasonable to suppose that the reason they do these things is that they are conscious as well. There is no corresponding reason to believe that rocks are conscious. It is not even clear what it would mean to say that they are, since it would take away the ordinary meaning of the word (e.g. you yourself are sometimes conscious and sometimes not, so it cannot be universal).
“Only humans are conscious” should indeed have a lower prior probability than “Only physical systems specified in some way are conscious”
Yes, but not lower than “only physical systems specified in some way are conscious, and that specification criteria is not “x is one of {human, dog, parakeet...}”″. If your idea of a “particular configuration” is a defined by a set of examplars then yes, “only physical systems of some particular configuration” follows. Given that, as you yourself say, whether humans are conscious or not is not the issue, we should consider “particular configurations” determined by some theoretical principle instead. And it seems to me my original argument concerning the conjunction fallacy does hold, given these caveats.
It is not even clear what it would mean to say that they are
That I must concede. But it’s not clear what it means to say a human being is conscious either (were it clear, there would not be so many impenetrable tomes of philosophy on the topic). Ofcourse it’s even less clear in the case of rocks, but at least it admits of the possibility of the rock’s inherent, latent consciousness being amplified by rearranging it into some particular configuration of matter as opposed to flashing into awareness at once upon the reconfiguration.
“Only humans are conscious” should indeed have a lower prior probability than “Only physical systems specified in some way are conscious”, since the latter must be true for the former to be true but not the other way around.
However, whether or not only humans are conscious is not the issue. Most people think that many or all animals are conscious, but they do not think that “all physical systems are conscious.” And this is not because of the prior probabilities, but is a conclusion drawn from evidence. The reason people think this way is that they see that they themselves appear to do certain things because they are conscious, and other people and animals do similar things, so it is reasonable to suppose that the reason they do these things is that they are conscious as well. There is no corresponding reason to believe that rocks are conscious. It is not even clear what it would mean to say that they are, since it would take away the ordinary meaning of the word (e.g. you yourself are sometimes conscious and sometimes not, so it cannot be universal).
Yes, but not lower than “only physical systems specified in some way are conscious, and that specification criteria is not “x is one of {human, dog, parakeet...}”″. If your idea of a “particular configuration” is a defined by a set of examplars then yes, “only physical systems of some particular configuration” follows. Given that, as you yourself say, whether humans are conscious or not is not the issue, we should consider “particular configurations” determined by some theoretical principle instead. And it seems to me my original argument concerning the conjunction fallacy does hold, given these caveats.
That I must concede. But it’s not clear what it means to say a human being is conscious either (were it clear, there would not be so many impenetrable tomes of philosophy on the topic). Ofcourse it’s even less clear in the case of rocks, but at least it admits of the possibility of the rock’s inherent, latent consciousness being amplified by rearranging it into some particular configuration of matter as opposed to flashing into awareness at once upon the reconfiguration.