The forecasting community is very concerned. The community prediction for a new Metaculus question on whether a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before mid-2021 is currently 87%:
For what it’s worth, I personally have a fairly solid forecasting track record and my own predictions are as follows, see more here:
-80% chance this specific new strain is >30% more transmissible
-90% chance *any* new strain before mid-2021 is >30% more transmissible
-65% chance this specific new strain is >50% more transmissible
-71% chance *any* new strain before mid-2021 is >50% more transmissible
29 Dec update:
-85% chance this specific new strain is >30% more transmissible
-93% chance any new strain before mid-2021 is >30% more transmissible
-70% chance this specific new strain is >50% more transmissible
-75% chance any new strain before mid-2021 is >50% more transmissible
FWIW I don’t foresee any of these estimates surpassing 95% confidence until we get some virological data to confirm the epidemiological data we’re seeing
The forecasting community is very concerned. The community prediction for a new Metaculus question on whether a single variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infects 10M worldwide before mid-2021 is currently 87%:
For what it’s worth, I personally have a fairly solid forecasting track record and my own predictions are as follows, see more here:
-80% chance this specific new strain is >30% more transmissible
-90% chance *any* new strain before mid-2021 is >30% more transmissible
-65% chance this specific new strain is >50% more transmissible
-71% chance *any* new strain before mid-2021 is >50% more transmissible
29 Dec update:
-85% chance this specific new strain is >30% more transmissible
-93% chance any new strain before mid-2021 is >30% more transmissible
-70% chance this specific new strain is >50% more transmissible
-75% chance any new strain before mid-2021 is >50% more transmissible
FWIW I don’t foresee any of these estimates surpassing 95% confidence until we get some virological data to confirm the epidemiological data we’re seeing
Do you have an opinion on what stocks will move as a result?