Does that [cutting cases by 50% per week] sound like something any Western country could possibly accomplish from here?
Yes. Have a look at the state of Victoria in Australia, which went from close to 700 cases a day in early August to zero in about 8 weeks. https://www.covid19data.com.au/victoria
I sympathise with people in countries run by incompetent buffoons (i.e. most of Europe and the Americas) but it is not inevitable.
Overall a terrific post—your point about the need to act before there is certainty is solid gold.
Also New Zealand, which has a handful of new cases trickling in from arrivals, but approximately zero community transmission due to the managed quarantine at the border. Even if this new strain has the increased transmissibility I expect NZ to not be anywhere near overwhelmed.
One of the differences is that transmission is, for obvious reasons, much, much easier to control on an island. Hawaii isn’t doing nearly as badly as the rest of the United States, for example.
Yes. Have a look at the state of Victoria in Australia, which went from close to 700 cases a day in early August to zero in about 8 weeks. https://www.covid19data.com.au/victoria
I sympathise with people in countries run by incompetent buffoons (i.e. most of Europe and the Americas) but it is not inevitable.
Overall a terrific post—your point about the need to act before there is certainty is solid gold.
Also New Zealand, which has a handful of new cases trickling in from arrivals, but approximately zero community transmission due to the managed quarantine at the border. Even if this new strain has the increased transmissibility I expect NZ to not be anywhere near overwhelmed.
One of the differences is that transmission is, for obvious reasons, much, much easier to control on an island. Hawaii isn’t doing nearly as badly as the rest of the United States, for example.