FYI, I’m not actually forecasting 50% on the two Elicit questions at the end of the post. Tapping on the distributions caused me to unintentionally make forecasts on them. I was able to modify the forecasts, but saw no way to remove them, so just set them to 50% so as to hopefully mislead others as little as possible. (While I’d like to actually make forecasts on these questions, I think how they are operationalized matters a lot and yet I did not see any operationalization provided for them.)
FYI, I’m not actually forecasting 50% on the two Elicit questions at the end of the post. Tapping on the distributions caused me to unintentionally make forecasts on them. I was able to modify the forecasts, but saw no way to remove them, so just set them to 50% so as to hopefully mislead others as little as possible. (While I’d like to actually make forecasts on these questions, I think how they are operationalized matters a lot and yet I did not see any operationalization provided for them.)
Tap again directly on your prediction to remove it.
Thanks! On mobile I had to zoom in to reliably tap directly on the bar, which I didn’t try originally.