It seems troubling that one of the most upvoted COVID-19 post on LessWrong is one that argued for a prediction that I think we should score really poorly.
I agree. FWIW, I strong-downvoted this post in December. I think this is the first LW post that I have strong-downvoted before.
Additionally, I commented on it (and on threads where this post was shared elsewhere, e.g. on Facebook) to explain my disagreement with it, and recorded ~the lowest forecast of anyone who submitted their forecast here that there’d be a 4th wave in the US in 2021.
What I failed to do was offer to bet here on the 4th wave question. I think the only time that I tried to make a bet on this topic was in a discussion on Facebook (set to friends-only) that began with “Well, it’s time to pull the fire alarm on the UK mutation.” I commented on the post on 12/26/20 with the following:
Would you be interested in operationalizing a bet on this? (If you don’t think its good practice to bet money on COVID infections/cases/deaths or otherwise aren’t interested in betting money, we can just make it a reputational bet.)
I get the sense that like Zvi you are being too pessimistic about how bad the new strain will be for the US relative to how bad thing would have been even without the new strain.
I agree. FWIW, I strong-downvoted this post in December. I think this is the first LW post that I have strong-downvoted before.
Additionally, I commented on it (and on threads where this post was shared elsewhere, e.g. on Facebook) to explain my disagreement with it, and recorded ~the lowest forecast of anyone who submitted their forecast here that there’d be a 4th wave in the US in 2021.
What I failed to do was offer to bet here on the 4th wave question. I think the only time that I tried to make a bet on this topic was in a discussion on Facebook (set to friends-only) that began with “Well, it’s time to pull the fire alarm on the UK mutation.” I commented on the post on 12/26/20 with the following:
However, the bet never came to fruition.