What can countries/states do? Impose hard lockdowns, focus test/trace/isolate resources on the new strain, stop travel, get people wearing N95s, create extra hospitals, vaccinate (using less effective vaccines as well as Pfizer/Moderna), run challenge trials to see how vaccines protect against new strain and against transmission, and … hope for the best. One source of uncertainty is how much news of a complete collapse of hospitals in some region will impact behavior in regions that haven’t collapsed yet. (I fear a “boy who cried wolf” scenario, where people think, “We never needed those temporary hospitals last time”).
What can individuals do? If the new strain is not more severe, then the risk for young and healthy people remains low. Presumably staying at home and receiving deliveries still has very low risk of infection. People who might need hospital care for non-Covid reasons should make plans. (If health care collapses, how much bigger is the risk from Covid for young people? You’ll probably get priority but standard of care will drop substantially.)
EDIT: Added some important points about vaccination I left out.
then the risk for young and healthy people remains low
Don’t confuse risk of death with risk overall. I personally know several young people who suffered months of debilitation, in some cases still feeling sick months later. From some limited studies this appears to be common, and permanent damage appears to be not uncommon including damage to testes, brain/memory etc.
At best we do not know the long term effects. Tell someone suffering from shingles (which was eventually found to be a result of prior chicken pox infection) that chicken pox is a “mild” condition.
I stand by my claim. We know the effects 10 months out. If some studies have convinced you otherwise, it would be useful to cite the evidence (maybe in a separate post).
Yeah, I was thinking something similar. It seems the bottom line is we’ll have to stay at home and receive deliveries for most of the next 4-8 months, while vaccines and infections bring the world toward herd immunity. So as individuals, we should make sure we’re suitably located and supplied for that scenario.
What can countries/states do? Impose hard lockdowns, focus test/trace/isolate resources on the new strain, stop travel, get people wearing N95s, create extra hospitals, vaccinate (using less effective vaccines as well as Pfizer/Moderna), run challenge trials to see how vaccines protect against new strain and against transmission, and … hope for the best. One source of uncertainty is how much news of a complete collapse of hospitals in some region will impact behavior in regions that haven’t collapsed yet. (I fear a “boy who cried wolf” scenario, where people think, “We never needed those temporary hospitals last time”).
What can individuals do? If the new strain is not more severe, then the risk for young and healthy people remains low. Presumably staying at home and receiving deliveries still has very low risk of infection. People who might need hospital care for non-Covid reasons should make plans. (If health care collapses, how much bigger is the risk from Covid for young people? You’ll probably get priority but standard of care will drop substantially.)
EDIT: Added some important points about vaccination I left out.
Don’t confuse risk of death with risk overall. I personally know several young people who suffered months of debilitation, in some cases still feeling sick months later. From some limited studies this appears to be common, and permanent damage appears to be not uncommon including damage to testes, brain/memory etc.
At best we do not know the long term effects. Tell someone suffering from shingles (which was eventually found to be a result of prior chicken pox infection) that chicken pox is a “mild” condition.
I stand by my claim. We know the effects 10 months out. If some studies have convinced you otherwise, it would be useful to cite the evidence (maybe in a separate post).
Yeah, I was thinking something similar. It seems the bottom line is we’ll have to stay at home and receive deliveries for most of the next 4-8 months, while vaccines and infections bring the world toward herd immunity. So as individuals, we should make sure we’re suitably located and supplied for that scenario.