One point not noted anywhere as far as I can see is that, by allowing the pandemic to spread to millions of people, the risk of a more dangerous or virulent strain appearing increased enormously.
If the pandemic had been kept to relatively small numbers, as in Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand, (China if you believe their statistics on this, unlike all their other statistics are correct) etc. this new more infective strain would likely never have appeared.
What is the underlying argument here. I don’t understand viral mutations sufficiently to know but have assumed they are largely random events. If so, isn’t this claim a bit like a fair coin landing heads for the past 10 flips and claiming the odds of tails has not increase?
One point not noted anywhere as far as I can see is that, by allowing the pandemic to spread to millions of people, the risk of a more dangerous or virulent strain appearing increased enormously.
If the pandemic had been kept to relatively small numbers, as in Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand, (China if you believe their statistics on this, unlike all their other statistics are correct) etc. this new more infective strain would likely never have appeared.
this is a really good point, and I haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere either.
What is the underlying argument here. I don’t understand viral mutations sufficiently to know but have assumed they are largely random events. If so, isn’t this claim a bit like a fair coin landing heads for the past 10 flips and claiming the odds of tails has not increase?
Odds are the same but it’s the difference between 10 flips and a 100.