There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021
My operationalization of this question that I defined above on 12/26/20:
There will be an additional distinct large wave of Covid-19 infections in the United States 2021″ as “The 7-day average of new cases according to Worldometers will decrease by at least 33% from a previous value in 2021 and then later increase to at least 150% of the previous high.
For this question to resolve positively per my operationalization, the 7-day average of US cases on Worldometers would need to exceed 150% of that number, i.e. 384,286.5 cases/day.
That in fact happened: On 12/31/2021, Worldometers reports 397.409 cases/day, so the question resolves positively.
Had 2021 ended one day sooner, the question would have resolved negatively, as the 7-day average of cases on 12/30/2021 was 353,932 cases/day, still below the necessary 384,286.5 cases/day threshold. Wow!
My final forecast was 25%, so I get the worst Brier Score of anyone. I also clearly failed to anticipate new variants. The fact that Omicron came so close to the end of 2021 doesn’t save my forecast from from the fact that it negligently ignored the possibility of variants.
And to be fair to everyone else, they probably didn’t have my specific operationalization in mind, which clearly could matter a lot to the resolution of the question, so I’ll let others judge their own forecasts.
My operationalization of this question that I defined above on 12/26/20:
The peak 7-day average of US cases on Worldometers was [256,191 cases/day](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) on January 11, 2021.
For this question to resolve positively per my operationalization, the 7-day average of US cases on Worldometers would need to exceed 150% of that number, i.e. 384,286.5 cases/day.
That in fact happened: On 12/31/2021, Worldometers reports 397.409 cases/day, so the question resolves positively.
Had 2021 ended one day sooner, the question would have resolved negatively, as the 7-day average of cases on 12/30/2021 was 353,932 cases/day, still below the necessary 384,286.5 cases/day threshold. Wow!
My final forecast was 25%, so I get the worst Brier Score of anyone. I also clearly failed to anticipate new variants. The fact that Omicron came so close to the end of 2021 doesn’t save my forecast from from the fact that it negligently ignored the possibility of variants.
And to be fair to everyone else, they probably didn’t have my specific operationalization in mind, which clearly could matter a lot to the resolution of the question, so I’ll let others judge their own forecasts.