by an intervention that didn’t interfere with more than one person’s free will.
That implies the “great people” approach to human history (history is shaped by actions of individual great people, not by large and diffuse economic/social/political/etc. forces) -- are you willing to accept it?
I think it implies only a rather weak version of the “great people” approach: some things of historical significance are down to individual people. (Who might be “great” in some sense, but might instead simply have been in a critical place at a critical time.) And yes, I’m perfectly willing to accept that; is there a reason why you would expect me not to?
Without Hitler, Germany would still have been unstable and at risk of being swayed by some sort of extremist demagogue willing to blame its troubles on Someone Else. So I’d assign a reasonable probability to something not entirely unlike the Nazi regime arising even without Hitler. It might even have had the National Socialists in charge. But their rhetoric wouldn’t have been the same, their policies wouldn’t have been the same, their tactics in war (if a war happened) wouldn’t have been the same, and many things would accordingly have been different. The extermination of millions of Jews doesn’t seem particularly inevitable, and I would guess that in (so to speak) most possible worlds in which Hitler is somehow taken out of the picture early on, there isn’t anything very much like the Holocaust.
It’s not my fault if the nearest correct thing to the “great people” theory that actually follows from my opinions happens not to be falsifiable. (It’s not even clear that strong forms of the “great people” theory are falsifiable, actually.)
Of course an opinion can be useful without being falsifiable. “Human life as we see it is not utterly worthless and meaningless,” is probably not falsifiable (how would you falsify it?), but believing it is very useful for avoiding suicide and the like.
Opinions are not falsifiable by their nature (well, maybe by revealed preferences). But, hopefully, core approaches to the study of history (e.g. “great people” vs “impersonal forces”) are more than mere opinions.
Quite possibly not. Is that a problem? (The way this conversation feels to me: You claim that X follows from my opinions. I say: no, only the much weaker X’ does. You then complain that X’ is unfalsifiable and useless. Quite possibly, but so what? I expect everyone has beliefs from which one can deduce unfalsifiable and useless things.)
A recap from my side: I didn’t claim that X follows from your opinions—I asked if you subscribe to the theory. You said yes, to a weak version. I pointed out that the weak version is unfalsifiable and useless. You said “so what?”
I don’t think that a version of a theory that has been sufficiently diluted and hedged to be unfalsifiable and so useless can be said to be a meaningful version of a theory. It’s just generic mush.
I’m not trying to trap you. I was interested in whether you actually believe in the “great people” theory (homeopathic versions don’t count). It now seems that you don’t. That is perfectly fine.
I didn’t claim that X follows from your opinions—I asked
Actually, you did both:
That implies the “great people” approach to human history [...] -- are you willing to accept it?
(An aside: where I come from, saying “Your opinion implies X; are you willing to accept X?” is a more adversarial move than simply saying “Your opinion implies X” since it carries at least a suggestion that maybe they believe things that imply X without accepting X, hence inconsistency or insincerity or something.)
It’s just generic mush.
My point, in case it wasn’t clear, is that the nearest thing to the “great people” theory that actually follows from anything I’ve said is what you are describing as “generic mush”. (Perhaps next time I will be less polite and just say “No, that’s bullshit, no such thing follows from anything I’ve said” rather than trying to find the nearest thing I can that does follow. I was hoping that you would either explain why it would be interesting if I accepted the “generic mush” or else explain why you think something stronger than the “generic mush” follows from what I wrote, and confess myself rather taken aback at the tack you have actually taken.)
As to the “great people” theory: I believe that some historical events are down to the actions of individuals (who may or may not be great in any other sense) while some are much more the result of large and diffuse phenomena involving many people. That isn’t a statement that has a lot of readily evaluable observable consequences, but it’s the best answer I can give to the question you asked. (As I said above, I’m not sure that the “great people” theory itself, even in strong forms, actually fares any better in terms of verifiability or falsifiability.)
That implies the “great people” approach to human history (history is shaped by actions of individual great people, not by large and diffuse economic/social/political/etc. forces) -- are you willing to accept it?
I think it implies only a rather weak version of the “great people” approach: some things of historical significance are down to individual people. (Who might be “great” in some sense, but might instead simply have been in a critical place at a critical time.) And yes, I’m perfectly willing to accept that; is there a reason why you would expect me not to?
Without Hitler, Germany would still have been unstable and at risk of being swayed by some sort of extremist demagogue willing to blame its troubles on Someone Else. So I’d assign a reasonable probability to something not entirely unlike the Nazi regime arising even without Hitler. It might even have had the National Socialists in charge. But their rhetoric wouldn’t have been the same, their policies wouldn’t have been the same, their tactics in war (if a war happened) wouldn’t have been the same, and many things would accordingly have been different. The extermination of millions of Jews doesn’t seem particularly inevitable, and I would guess that in (so to speak) most possible worlds in which Hitler is somehow taken out of the picture early on, there isn’t anything very much like the Holocaust.
That, of course, is not a falsifiable statement :-)
It’s not my fault if the nearest correct thing to the “great people” theory that actually follows from my opinions happens not to be falsifiable. (It’s not even clear that strong forms of the “great people” theory are falsifiable, actually.)
I am not talking about faults, but if it’s not falsifiable, can it be of any use?
Of course an opinion can be useful without being falsifiable. “Human life as we see it is not utterly worthless and meaningless,” is probably not falsifiable (how would you falsify it?), but believing it is very useful for avoiding suicide and the like.
Opinions are not falsifiable by their nature (well, maybe by revealed preferences). But, hopefully, core approaches to the study of history (e.g. “great people” vs “impersonal forces”) are more than mere opinions.
Quite possibly not. Is that a problem? (The way this conversation feels to me: You claim that X follows from my opinions. I say: no, only the much weaker X’ does. You then complain that X’ is unfalsifiable and useless. Quite possibly, but so what? I expect everyone has beliefs from which one can deduce unfalsifiable and useless things.)
A recap from my side: I didn’t claim that X follows from your opinions—I asked if you subscribe to the theory. You said yes, to a weak version. I pointed out that the weak version is unfalsifiable and useless. You said “so what?”
I don’t think that a version of a theory that has been sufficiently diluted and hedged to be unfalsifiable and so useless can be said to be a meaningful version of a theory. It’s just generic mush.
I’m not trying to trap you. I was interested in whether you actually believe in the “great people” theory (homeopathic versions don’t count). It now seems that you don’t. That is perfectly fine.
Actually, you did both:
(An aside: where I come from, saying “Your opinion implies X; are you willing to accept X?” is a more adversarial move than simply saying “Your opinion implies X” since it carries at least a suggestion that maybe they believe things that imply X without accepting X, hence inconsistency or insincerity or something.)
My point, in case it wasn’t clear, is that the nearest thing to the “great people” theory that actually follows from anything I’ve said is what you are describing as “generic mush”. (Perhaps next time I will be less polite and just say “No, that’s bullshit, no such thing follows from anything I’ve said” rather than trying to find the nearest thing I can that does follow. I was hoping that you would either explain why it would be interesting if I accepted the “generic mush” or else explain why you think something stronger than the “generic mush” follows from what I wrote, and confess myself rather taken aback at the tack you have actually taken.)
As to the “great people” theory: I believe that some historical events are down to the actions of individuals (who may or may not be great in any other sense) while some are much more the result of large and diffuse phenomena involving many people. That isn’t a statement that has a lot of readily evaluable observable consequences, but it’s the best answer I can give to the question you asked. (As I said above, I’m not sure that the “great people” theory itself, even in strong forms, actually fares any better in terms of verifiability or falsifiability.)