No, it isn’t. The most obvious meaning is plainly false; we can steel-man it into something not blatantly wrong, but the new statement still wouldn’t warrant this level of certainty.
The truth is that the old “party organization” control is gone forever. Better education, the rise of the mass pressure group, the economic depression of the 30′s, the growth of government functions—all these have contributed to the downfall of the organization.” Tammany, Hague, Kelley and the rest of the straight party leaders, while still important, are no longer omnipotent, no longer able to determine the issues. For practical political purposes, they are moribund; they cannot be relied on to do the job alone.
They have been supplanted in large measure by the pressure groups. In these pressure groups are the farmers, still traditionally Republican, and organized labor which became “traditionally Democratic” under Roosevelt. Another loosely organized group are the progressives who followed Roosevelt for four elections but are increasingly restive under President Truman, mostly because of the reactionary domination exercised over the Democratic Party by the Congressional Southerners who, although a minority of the Democratic party, are a majority of the Party-in-Congress and are assuming control of the Party organization councils. And also among these groups are the racial groups who have learned to use the vote as an economic weapon and who can no longer be satisfied with a Tammany turkey on Thanksgiving.
I mean, the steelman would be to say that this is a rap song that gets off on clever phrases, but it obviously isn’t supposed to be completely certain, it’s just a good mental model to keep in mind.
No, it isn’t. The most obvious meaning is plainly false; we can steel-man it into something not blatantly wrong, but the new statement still wouldn’t warrant this level of certainty.
ETA, from this memo to President Truman laying out the strategy which let him defeat Dewey after all:
I mean, the steelman would be to say that this is a rap song that gets off on clever phrases, but it obviously isn’t supposed to be completely certain, it’s just a good mental model to keep in mind.