I’d be fascinated by having a conversation about why 1e14 FLOP/s might be a better estimate.
I think I don’t want to share anything publicly beyond what I wrote in Section 3 here. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
For longer term brain processes, you need to take into account fractional shares of relatively-slow-but-high-complexity processes
Yeah I’ve written about that too (here). :) I think that’s much more relevant to how hard it is to create AGI rather than how hard it is to run AGI.
But also, I think it’s easy to intuitively mix up “complexity” with “not-knowing-what’s-going-on”. Like, check out this code, part of an AlphaZero-chess clone project. Imagine knowing nothing about chess, and just looking at a minified (or compiled) version of that code. It would feel like an extraordinarily complex, inscrutable, mess. But if you do know how chess works and you’re trying to write that code in the first place, no problem, it’s a few days of work to get it basically up and running. And it would no longer feel very complex to you, because you would have a framework for understanding it.
By analogy, if we don’t know what all the protein cascades etc. are doing in the brain, then they feel like an extraordinarily complex, inscrutable, mess. But if you have a framework for understanding them, and you’re writing code that does the same thing (e.g. sets certain types of long-term memory traces in certain conditions, or increments a counter variable, or whatever) in your AGI, then that code-writing task might feel pretty straightforward.
I think I don’t want to share anything publicly beyond what I wrote in Section 3 here. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Yeah I’ve written about that too (here). :) I think that’s much more relevant to how hard it is to create AGI rather than how hard it is to run AGI.
But also, I think it’s easy to intuitively mix up “complexity” with “not-knowing-what’s-going-on”. Like, check out this code, part of an AlphaZero-chess clone project. Imagine knowing nothing about chess, and just looking at a minified (or compiled) version of that code. It would feel like an extraordinarily complex, inscrutable, mess. But if you do know how chess works and you’re trying to write that code in the first place, no problem, it’s a few days of work to get it basically up and running. And it would no longer feel very complex to you, because you would have a framework for understanding it.
By analogy, if we don’t know what all the protein cascades etc. are doing in the brain, then they feel like an extraordinarily complex, inscrutable, mess. But if you have a framework for understanding them, and you’re writing code that does the same thing (e.g. sets certain types of long-term memory traces in certain conditions, or increments a counter variable, or whatever) in your AGI, then that code-writing task might feel pretty straightforward.