In regards to whether early AGI will start out as an LLM, I find myself both agreeing and disagreeing with you Steven. I do think that “LLM alone” will almost certainly not be a good description of even the early crude AGIs. On the other hand, I do think that “multiple LLMs embedded in a complex scaffolding system that does various sorts of RL in reaction to interactions with simulators/human-feedback/real-world-sensors-and-actuators” is a pretty reasonable guess. In which case, the bulk of the compute would still be in those component LLMs, and thus compute estimates based on LLMs would still be relevant for approximate estimates.
In regards to whether early AGI will start out as an LLM, I find myself both agreeing and disagreeing with you Steven. I do think that “LLM alone” will almost certainly not be a good description of even the early crude AGIs. On the other hand, I do think that “multiple LLMs embedded in a complex scaffolding system that does various sorts of RL in reaction to interactions with simulators/human-feedback/real-world-sensors-and-actuators” is a pretty reasonable guess. In which case, the bulk of the compute would still be in those component LLMs, and thus compute estimates based on LLMs would still be relevant for approximate estimates.