You can calculate wrong in a way that overestimates the probability, even if the probability you estimate is small. For some highly improbable events, if you calculate a probability of 10^-9 your best estimate of the probability might be smaller than that.
True. I suppose I was unconsciously thinking (now there’s a phrase to fear!) about improbable dangerous events, where it is much more important not to underestimate P(X). If I get it wrong such that P(X) is truly only one in a trillion, then I am never going to know the difference and it’s not a big deal, but if P(X) is truly on the order of P(I suck at maths) then I am in serious trouble ;)
Especially given the recent evidence you have just provided for that hypothesis.
You can calculate wrong in a way that overestimates the probability, even if the probability you estimate is small. For some highly improbable events, if you calculate a probability of 10^-9 your best estimate of the probability might be smaller than that.
True. I suppose I was unconsciously thinking (now there’s a phrase to fear!) about improbable dangerous events, where it is much more important not to underestimate P(X). If I get it wrong such that P(X) is truly only one in a trillion, then I am never going to know the difference and it’s not a big deal, but if P(X) is truly on the order of P(I suck at maths) then I am in serious trouble ;)
Especially given the recent evidence you have just provided for that hypothesis.