ok, fair, that is true, but I interpreted the core of the query to be
> 1/ when someone says they “believe in God” does this mean something like “I assign a ≥ 50% probability to there being an [examples of attributes they may give] intelligence?”
the thing I was affirming is that yes, they really would verbally assign a high probability to that claim in any tractable way of querying their probabilities. I don’t know how many actually perceptually assign a high probability, in the sense of their perceptual system making direct predictions which are based on a high probability of the claim they would verbally endorse, but getting them to introspect enough to compare their perceptual anticipations to their verbal anticipations is generally extremely difficult.
While they don’t expect to literally see Jesus in person, there’s a lot of emphasis on ‘personal revelation’ which is for the most part just conditioning to get believers to interpret their own regular ol’ intuition/emotions as communication from the Holy Spirit. If someone believes that strongly enough, the brain provides whatever thoughts/feelings they subconsciously expect to ‘receive’. It’s both impressive and disturbing how well this cycle can work.
Anticipation can easily function as a self-fulfilling prophecy as long as the anticipated experience is fully mental and emotional.
And because this ‘evidence’ has been accepted by them, they also expect their prayers to be able to miraculously heal sickness/disease (except for when it doesn’t of course; “God’s will” etc etc.)
ok, fair, that is true, but I interpreted the core of the query to be
> 1/ when someone says they “believe in God” does this mean something like “I assign a ≥ 50% probability to there being an [examples of attributes they may give] intelligence?”
the thing I was affirming is that yes, they really would verbally assign a high probability to that claim in any tractable way of querying their probabilities. I don’t know how many actually perceptually assign a high probability, in the sense of their perceptual system making direct predictions which are based on a high probability of the claim they would verbally endorse, but getting them to introspect enough to compare their perceptual anticipations to their verbal anticipations is generally extremely difficult.
While they don’t expect to literally see Jesus in person, there’s a lot of emphasis on ‘personal revelation’ which is for the most part just conditioning to get believers to interpret their own regular ol’ intuition/emotions as communication from the Holy Spirit. If someone believes that strongly enough, the brain provides whatever thoughts/feelings they subconsciously expect to ‘receive’. It’s both impressive and disturbing how well this cycle can work. Anticipation can easily function as a self-fulfilling prophecy as long as the anticipated experience is fully mental and emotional.
And because this ‘evidence’ has been accepted by them, they also expect their prayers to be able to miraculously heal sickness/disease (except for when it doesn’t of course; “God’s will” etc etc.)